Penguins Vs. Canadiens: The Unbearable Lightness Of Being Confident

I find every reason to be worried about the Penguins at all times. This prevailing mindset exists in all fans of all sports teams, regardless of the quality or recent performance of that team, for two main reasons:

1) As a devoted fan to a particular team, one is uniquely privy to that team’s subtle weaknesses.

Commentators and casual Penguin-watchers might remark that Marc-Andre Fleury is one of the best clutch goaltenders in the NHL, or that the Pens are loaded with offensive firepower on the blue line with Gonchar, Letang and Goligoski, and they wouldn’t be wrong. People who watch and root for the Penguins on a nightly basis, however, know that Fleury is capable of going into “Fleury…what??” mode and letting in unscreened wrist shots from any concessions stand on any given night, and that Gonchar, Letang and Goligoski all occasionally forget how to play the sport of hockey and become unable to stand in front of other human beings while in their defensive zone. These concerns aren’t extreme pessimism on the part of fans; they’re legitimate aspects that we notice and worry about because we’ve seen them happen hundreds of times.

2) Fans are always reserved about praising their own teams too highly for fear of jinxing them by celebrating prematurely.

Part of this is in a joking, supernatural “don’t want to jinx them!” kind of way, which people don’t actually believe (but dammit, we’re not deviating from it in the playoffs), but on a more practical level, fans also don’t want to appear overconfident and gloat and then have their team ultimately lose, which would make the situation far less digestible on all levels. By curbing our expectations in advance, we give ourselves an emotional safety net if our team loses, rather than the devastating free-fall we’d experience if we were positive the team was going to win and they didn’t.

Both of these reasons are completely legitimate and almost completely universal — you want to scream at Yankee fans when they get nervous when Mariano Rivera comes into the 9th inning of a game when the team’s up 3-1 in the playoff series, but that’s just what fans do. Who wants to be confident and rational about their own team? Douchebags, that’s who. Also rational people, I guess. No, only douchebags. There – proved it!

My point is, I am very much one of these always-worried people. I am extremely one of these people. And yet, having explained in depth all of this jargon about all fans making themselves worried at all times, I am extremely, almost dangerously confident about the Penguins heading into the Montreal series, and here’s why:

Penguins 6, Canadiens 1: Pens Manage To Contain Team Of Easily-Containable Dudes

Montreal appears to be right on track for their annual low-seeded playoff finish, early playoff exit, and consequent coach pressure and firing in December of 2010. The Canadiens have been playing better defensively lately, at least as far as I can derive from tickerbar scores, but the Penguins absolutely manhandled them; Montreal appeared to be playing no discernible system, the supposedly red-hot Jaroslav Halak turned in a pedestrian performance, and the Canadiens’ Gomez-Gionta-Cammalleri “Legion of OK Dudes” combination was far from terror-inspiring.

In short, Montreal resembles a better-coached ’08-’09 Tampa Bay Lightning: a suddenly high-priced roster of more than 50% new guys all frantically trying to mesh together to resemble a complete hockey team. I imagine they’ll still make the playoffs, though, because unlike the Lightning, they’ll be motivated by the fact that if they miss the playoffs, the citizens of Montreal will hunt down and murder their families. But I don’t see them going anywhere after that.

Other bright spots:

- Free agent splash Mike Rupp matched his goal total from last season (3 in 72 games) just 12 games into the season.

- I laughed pretty hard in the First when Malkin slipped a saucer pass to Dupuis for a mini breakaway and Steigerwald excitedly announced “Here comes Dupuis all alone…saved by Halak.” You’re not allowed to excitedly raise your voice if the person with the scoring chance is Pascal Dupuis. It’s the same as the old Kip Miller rule.

- I find myself rooting extra hard against Montreal these days solely because they took on Scott Gomez’s contract and helped the Rangers, making them guilty of some “Accessory To Team I Hate” crime. Beating them by 5 goals while Nonfactor-ez  turned in a typical nonfactor performance was far sweeter than your standard Northeast Division win.

- Sidney Crosby is good.

NHL Free Agency Recap: The Canadiens Are Not Big Fans Of Money

– The Rangers sign Marian Gaborik to a 5-year, $37.5 million deal. Rather than settle with the Gomez albatross, the Rangers are taking a gamble on a contract with a chance to be an even bigger albatross, essentially inviting the oft-injured Gaborik a chance to kick back, hop on the injured bandwagon, and essentially retire. Healthy, he’s easily one of the league’s top 10 wingers, probably top 5, but that’s like saying that J.D. Salinger is a Top 5 writer whenever he actually decides to write.

Or maybe, the Rangers have a brilliant scheme in mind — when Gaborik gets hurt (tomorrow), they then trade for Dany Heatley, then keep Gaborik on injured reserve the entire season to free up cap space for Heatley, then in the playoffs, they bring back Gaborik when there’s no cap in effect and dominate. It might even be crazy enough to work, at least until Gaborik gets hurt on his third shift of the playoffs.

– The Canadiens sign Mike Cammalleri to a 5-year, $30 million deal, Brian Gionta to a 5-year $25 million deal, and Jaroslav Spacek to a 3-year, $11.5 million deal. Excepting an injured 63 game, 19 goal 2007-08, Cammalleri has scored 34 and 39 goals in his past two full seasons, and he’s still only 27; $6 mil is a dent to any cap, but the Canadiens have the money, and for an unrestricted 2-time 30 goal scorer who’ll only be 32 when the deal expires it’s not an unexpectedly egregious amount.

Five years at $5 mil per for the even tinier Gionta makes zero sense, though, particularly in conjunction with the Cammalleri deal. The Habs are gonna have $11 million of their cap for the next five years devoted to two Kiefer Sutherland-sized wingers? After adding the utterely overpriced, nonthreatening waste that is Scott Gomez? Maybe Cammalleri and Gionta are gonna stand on each others’ shoulders and wear one big long coat and entertain Jacques Martin? Who was Montreal bidding against for this contract?

Spacek is 35, and a 3-year-deal might be a bit unnecessary given the Canadiens’ multiple options for power play quarterbacks (especially with the addition of Hal Gill!), but he’s far from a liability, and what the hell, if you’re gonna spend, might as well spend — the Canadiens have the money. After taking on the Gomez contract, though, this team could’ve traded for Crosby in the offseason and I’d still be laughing at them.

Other deals around the league, and my something-resembling-almost analysis: