Posts Tagged ‘Predictions’

Here Is Exactly What Will Happen In The Pirates / Astros Series

May 6, 2011

My friend Dave and I had a GChat conversation about the upcoming Pirates/Astros series, agreeing that it’s definitely going to be the annual “Pirates could take 2 of 3 here and get to .500″-seeming series that the Pirates will definitely, DEFINITELY blow.

Rather than summarize our soon-to-be-painfully-accurate points, I’ve just copied and pasted the GChat conversation in its entirety, because I am a hard worker:

Dave: we’ve got 3 home games against Houston
and there’s no reason not to think we could be .500 by next Monday
above .500 i meant

Me: letdown time?

Dave: YEP
letdown time
its a layup

Me: I think you’re right
Wandy Rodriguez / Bud Norris first two games
there’s 18 Ks

Dave: I could see that absolutely
both K guys

Me: then JA Happ who they should beat but something will fuck up
two lefties too, so might be some Brandon Wood 3B action
god, Wood or Pedro vs Wandy Rodriguez is like 99% chance of K either way

Dave: if things go as planned, they’ll drop the first, then win the second and Happ should be shoe-in for .500
and they’ll drop that one 5 – 1
haha ya it is man

Me: yes!
totally
and they’ll get a run off Happ in the first, leave two on base
then he’ll go six innings
and someone who I make fun of in the Houston lineup will have a three run double
like Geoff Blum or something

Dave: i mean its almost as easy as figuring out the plot to a romantic comedy
run off happ in the first is PERFECT
almost like a dude accidentally sneezing on the stranger woman he’s about to fall in love with in the standard rom com

Me: haha

Dave: as an added teaser to this bet, I’ll lay odds that it will be a ‘beautiful day for baseball’ on sunday
75 and sunny

Me: and a good PNC Park turnout

Dave: they’ll get a nice crowd
BOOM
same thought

Me: there is no doubt this is happening
save this convo

Dave: i’ll have my assistant log it

Me: PAM!
jot this down

Dave: “Got it… 1 – 1 split, lotta K’s, big crowd…. umm sorry was it supposed to be good weather on Sunday or a good crowd??”
“BOTH PAM, BOTH!!!”

Me: haha

Dave: i want my role to be played by ed asner

Preparin’ To Be Wrong 2K10 Edition: My Mostly Uneventful MLB Season Predictions

April 5, 2010

NL East

1. Phillies
2. Braves (WC)
3. Marlins
4. Mets
5. Nationals

NL Central

1. Cardinals
2. Reds
3. Cubs
4. Brewers
5. Astros
6. Pirates

NL West

1. Diamondbacks
2. Dodgers
3. Rockies
4. Giants
5. Padres

The Phillies and Cardinals both seem like virtual locks on paper, with the Braves most likely to emerge from an Atlanta/Florida/Random-Ass-West-Team Wildcard Pack. The Cubs got near career-years from Derrick Lee and Ted Lilly last season and still didn’t come close to competing in the Central; one slip-up or major injury and they could easily be surpassed by the suddenly extremely-pitching-deep Reds. The Giants, Astros, and Mets bore the hell out of me.

Sleeper Pick: Arizona. The West is the most wide-open division, and with the Dodgers aging ever so slightly (and starting Vincente Padilla on Opening Day) and the Rockies perhaps susceptible to just natural regression (though their pitching is deep), we might as well make one semi-unexpected pick and throw the Arizona Upsidey McUpsides into the playoffs, especially after Adam LaRoche’s certain 15-homer April. Did Brandon Webb reinjure himself as I was typing this? Dr. James Andrews is boarding a lear jet as we speak? Cool.

AL EAST

1. Yankees
2. Red Sox (WC)
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays

AL CENTRAL

1. Twins
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Royals

AL WEST

1. Angels
2. Rangers
3. A’s
4. Mariners

As much as I’d love to see the Rays squeak in the playoffs again — and they might, given the endless pitching depth they’re prepared to pump into the major league roster — it’s still risky biz to pick against the Yanks and Sox, particularly with their big-league roster additions to already loaded lineups and pitching staffs, plus the added caveat of both franchises having the ability to instantly rectify any major problems by making a payroll-adding midseason trade. I love the Rangers’ farm system, but the Angels are still surprisingly underrated offensively, and I don’t have the guts to pick against them until they show actual signs of slowing down in the regular season. The White Sox and Tigers could compete in the Central (it might only take 85-87 wins to take that division) but Chicago’s lineup and Detroit’s pitching are full of holes. I’m also not high enough on the Mariners’ offseason additions to believe they’ll improve on a fraudulent 85-77 record a year ago (their run differential was -52, 50 runs worse than the A’s).

Sleeper Pick: Cleveland. In a super wide-open division, the Indians are coming off down seasons by practically their entire roster, and should be somewhat invigorated by a combination of players playing back up to expectations (everyone in Fantasy got screwed by Grady Sizemore a year ago), any returning contribution from Fausto Carmona, and a number of MLB-ready prospects. I doubt they’ll finish far above .500, if .500 at all, but that still might be enough to keep them in the AL Central race far longer than anyone expects.

Preparin’ To Be Wrong ’09 Edition: My Mostly Obvious 2009 Baseball Season Predictions

April 6, 2009

NL East

1. Mets, 2. Phillies (WC), 3. Braves, 4. Marlins, 5. Nationals

The K-Rod and Putz acquisitions instantly make the Mets’ hilarious ’08 bullpen slightly less hilarious, and David Murphy and Mike Pelfrey have enough upside to close the 3-game gap in the division last year, whereas the still-mighty Phillies appear more likely to maintain the status quo after replacing Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez and retaining 7 other positional starters and the same rotation and bullpen from ’08 (albiet successful ones). The high-upside Marlins still seem a year or two away, but a healthy Braves team could easily take advantage of any slipups by the Mets or Phillies; the absence of sentences like “You know, if Mike Hampton and John Smoltz can string together full seasons…” could actually make that a reality instead of a cruel joke.

NL Central

1. Cubs, 2. Cardinals, 3. Reds, 4. Brewers, 5. Astros, 6. Pirates

The Cubs boast the best 1-5 rotation in the NL and probably all of baseball; even if Harden gets hurt this week and misses the full season (likely) they should walk away with this division. The Reds are talent-deep but still a bit on the young side to overcome a theoretically-healthy Chris Carpenter and Co. in St. Louis, who suddenly boast a legit 1-8 offense with the addition of Khalil Greene over Cesar Izturis at short and the retention of Ryan Ludwick, a contract year Rick Ankiel, and OF prospect Colby Rasmus seeping into the lineup. The Brewers and Astros are one SP injury away from punting on the season, and the Pirates are…I forsee Andy LaRoche having a decent year. Hey look over there!

NL West

1. Dodgers, 2. Diamondbacks, 3. Giants, 4. Rockies, 5. Padres

The Diamondbacks could receive the monster leap from Justin Upton or Stephen Drew to launch them into instant playoff contention any season now, but until the D’Backs prove they’re not just decent-to-above average players in the present, the weak NL West should belong to the pitching-deep Dodgers, whose defensive improvements (full season of Kemp/Ethier/Loney/Hudson instead of Pierre/Kent/suddenly retarded Andruw Jones) and a rotation backend bolstered by top prospect Clayton Kershaw (and Dodger Stadium) should have the Dodgers battling the Cubs for the fewest runs allowed in the NL. The veteran Giants should lurk around 80-84 wins in case the division completely tanks, and the pitching-deficient Rockies and everything-deficient Padres are gonna be teams to watch around Trade Deadline season.

AL East

1. Red Sox, 2. Yankees (WC), 3. Rays, 4. Blue Jays, 5. Orioles

The Red Sox are the most complete team in baseball, boasting a National League caliber rotation (7 deep with the additions of Brad Penny and John Smoltz, and with Taylor Bucholtz still in the wings) and an American League offense, plus one of the best defensive starting-8s in the league and a battle-tested bullpen. The Yankees should leap right back into postseason contention, provided their rubber-armed starting pitchers can hang in games for just 6 or 7 innings and allow their offense to coast to 10-5 victories night after night. I’d love to see the Rays repeat as October-crashers, and they’re certainly capable of growing even more deadly if B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria continue their uptick and David Price makes his way to the rotation even in limited duty, but someone in this division’s gonna end up S.O.L. and the Rays’ ’08 injury luck and moderately unsettled bullpen make them the most likely candidates. Toronto and Baltimore continue very slowly getting more interesting, but, well, sorry fellas.

AL Central

1. White Sox, 2. Indians, 3. Tigers, 4. Twins, 5. Royals

Probably the hardest division to predict, but I’m gonna go against PECOTA’s 76-win prediction for Chicago and pick the Sox to repeat in the Central. While I don’t love their long-term outlook, their age, or Carols Quentin’s odds for an ’09 letdown, their Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Contreras 1-4 is arguably the division’s most solid (barring a full healthy season from the Twins’ guys) and their deep bullpen and powerful (if elderly) offense outscored Cleveland’s a year ago. Neither the Indians nor the Tigers played as poorly as their records reflected last season (Cleveland had a +44 run differential and only won 81 games, whereas the Angels were +68 and won 100) and the Twins are always ready to unleash three or four more prospecty-looking white dudes who instantly play well into the league, but the White Sox remain the safest (if most unspectacular) pick in the division, especially if Kenny Williams makes some crazy shortsighted midyear trade to save the season.

AL West

1. Angels, 2. A’s, 3. Rangers, 4. Mariners

The Angels’ AL West dominance was somewhat of an aberration a year ago, after winning a zillion close games despite a poor offense that now flips Mark Teixiera for Bobby Abreu, but I can’t imagine how a team with Joe Saunders and Jered Weaver (plus three other DL’d all-star caliber starters), a terrific bullpen, and plus defenders around the diamond could be headed for the 81-81 season PECOTA forsees, especially in a division as untested as the current AL West. The A’s have surely improved with Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, and Orlando Cabrera taking away worthless at-bats from the likes of Bobby Crosby and Emil Brown, but the uncertain health of Justin Duchscherer leaves the A’s with a monumentally inexperienced rotation that surely cannot be expected to hold up to a full MLB season. I forsee the Angels sneaking into the postseason at around 85-88 wins, depending on the health of Lackey and Escobar, then annoyingly beating some 98-win team in the playoffs, anticlimactic baseball 5-game series style.

NLCS: Cubs over Phillies

ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees

WORLD SERIES: Red Sox over Cubs

And no, I don’t actually believe that will be the World Series, it’s just the two teams I believe are most likely to make the playoffs, then the postseason is a total toss-up — I’m sure either the 85-win Dodgers or 84-win Angels or some other random team (D’Backs? Indians?) will sneak in there, but whatever, gotta start somewhere.

Oops! Just realized I forgot to write jokes into this – I’ll be sure to make up for it with a pile o’ zingers in my next post. Although I guess picking the Mets in the postseason is kinda funny…


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